Back Tim Pat at 16/1

Haydock, 2.40 Saturday: Back Tim Pat at 16/1 win only

I am earlier than usual with the Saturday tip, though you won’t have much time to make up your mind about taking the potential value, which comes with some risk. 17 runners are engaged in this, The Grand National Trial, but the 48 hour declarations will come on Thursday morning, probably announced around 11 o’clock. I recommend betting Tim Pat now because I think a handful or more of the current field might not run due to the forecast good ground.

Tim Pat likes good ground. His two best Racing Post Ratings have been achieved on good ground. With just 5 chases, he is unexposed, especially at this trip. He is due to carry 9.13, 1lb out of the handicap, but Brian Hughes is already jocked up. Brian’s lowest riding weight is published at ten stones, so there ought to be no more overweight.

Tim Pat won his last two races last season and has improved with each of his three outings this year. Last time out he was a neck 2nd on good ground at Doncaster and is coming nicely into form. He won over this course and distance last March, and has a lot going for him. If you are more comfortable backing EW, then go ahead, but only 3 places are on offer for now. Unless the field cuts up really badly, at least 4 places ought to be on offer come Saturday. More importantly in my view, there is the risk that for some reason he might not run and backing him before the final declaration stage on Thursday means your money is lost should he miss the race. That’s another reason I choose to risk only the win money for now. Skybet have his price badly wrong, I’m sure. He’ll be at 8/1 at most come post time, and probably a fair bit shorter.

Good luck


Season’s profit so far to £5 stakes is £103.

My usual warning. Anything I put up as a tip here is for ‘fun money’ – stakes you can afford to lose almost without even thinking about it.  There’s just as much fun to be had with small stakes.

Post race edit: Tim Pat was backed in to 7/1, but the rain had come, reducing his ground advantage. He lost a shoe at the start, but was allowed to take part, and there’s no way of knowing if the missing shoe was the cause of him being pulled up.

Season’s profit now £83 to £5 stakes.

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