Well, the first Saturday tip Tim Pat at 16s has indeed shortened in the market, though good ground at Haydock, which seemed odds on on Wednesday, has eased quite a bit to good to soft. If it gets any softer, I’d be a wee bit less confident about Tim Pat. But we have the price, so let’s hope he can win or place in the first three (first 5 now available).
Looking at the staying chase at Ascot at 2.25, Neon Moon looks much too big at 16/1 to that generous 5 places EW (now quite widely available). Ascot’s ground this morning (Friday) was given as good, good to soft in places (the good ground, as usual at Ascot comes from the turn in to the exit of the home straight. Turf here was relaid some years ago but it has never settled to a winter consistency with the old turf on the rest of the course; and it can make things less safe than ideal for horses suddenly finding themselves on different ground).
Anyway, a number of these have never shone on good ground, quite a substantial number. Some of them have won on it, but the rating achieved was some way below their best. Neon Moon’s top four performances are on good ground; only Danny Kirwan can better that, but he is not nearly as good value as Neon Moon.
Trainer Pipe is in decent form at a win strike rate of 22% and Philip Armson takes 3lbs off with his claim. Neon Moon ought to have won last week at Taunton, but being steadied into the last saw him lose too much momentum, and he was beaten half a length. His top 3 performances have been right handed (as Ascot is). But the ground is far and away the key contributor to the value here and an EW bet to 5 places is strongly recommended.
Good luck
Joe
My usual warning. Anything I put up as a tip here is for ‘fun money’ – stakes you can afford to lose almost without even thinking about it. There’s just as much fun to be had with small stakes.
Neon Moon was backed in to 10/1 and ran a fine race to finish second and give us a profit of £11. Season’s profit now £94 to £5 stakes.
Steeplechasing 