Skybet’s 9/1 to 4 places makes Thyme Hill cracking EW value in the 2.10, The Brown Advisory Chase, where Gerri Colombe will start a short priced favourite. GC was most impressive at Sandown last time, and this trip should see him improve for the test. But connections were unsure until fairly recently whether to run him here at all, calling him ‘a horse for next year’. But his 5/4 price is way out of kilter compared with that of Thyme Hill, a sound stayer who has finished 2nd in a Stayers Hurdle.
Thyme Hill’s festival formline reads 342 (Bumper: Albert Bartlett: Stayers Hurdle): for all Cheltenham runs it reads 23142. He jumped superbly last time to win the Kauto Star at Kempton, goes very well fresh, will like the ground and I’ll be most surprised if he cannot make the first 4 and get us a profit.
Captain Guinness is a horse I’d have taken little interest in but for a preview podcast where Rachel Blackmore, when asked for her best bet at Cheltenham, nominated him EW. He seems to have been around for a long time, but Captain Guinness is joint youngest (with Funambule Sivola) in this Queen Mother Champion Chase, and he has been running well lately. I have backed him at 20/1 in the ‘without market’ with William Hill, and suggest you do the same. These without markets can sometimes offer value; they effectively disregard the horse you have opted to bet without, so, if Edwardstone wins and Captain Guinness is 2nd, you get paid at 20/1, just as you would if Captain Guinness finishes first.
Good luck
Joe
My usual warning. Anything I put up as a tip here is for ‘fun money’ – stakes you can afford to lose almost without even thinking about it. There’s just as much fun to be had with small stakes.
Profit for the season to £5 stakes: £158.
Steeplechasing 